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1. Auto repair shops
go away. A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical engine
has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired
by dealers. It will take only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric
engine. Faulty electric engines are not repaired in the dealership but are sent
to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. Essentially, if your
electric "Check Motor" light comes on, you simply drive up to what looks like a
car wash. Your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out
comes your car with a new engine.
2. Gas stations
go away. Parking meters are replaced by meters that dispense electricity. All
companies install electrical recharging stations.
3. All major
auto manufacturers have already designated 5-6 billion dollars each to start
building new plants that only build electric cars.
4. Coal
industries, Oil companies and Drilling for oil become rare.
5. Homes will
produce and store more electrical energy during the day then they use and will
sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries
that are high electricity users.
A
baby born today may see more gas powered cars in museums than on the street.
Other
TRENDS
1.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went
bankrupt.
What happened to
Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people
won't see it coming.
Did you think in
1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?
Yet digital
cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but
followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a
disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream
in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with
Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D
printing, agriculture and jobs.
2. Software will
disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
3. Uber is just
a software tool, they don't own any cars, yet they are now the biggest taxi
company in the world.
4. Airbnb is now
the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any
properties.
5. Artificial
Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.
This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier
than expected.
6. In the U.S.,
young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson, you can get
legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90%
accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law,
stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only
omniscient specialists will remain.
6A.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than
human nurses.
7. Facebook now
has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
8. Autonomous
cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around
2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a
car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your
location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you
only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. The very
young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a
car.
8A. It will
change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can
transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2
million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one
accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to
1 accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives
worldwide each year.
8B. Most car
companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the
evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla,
Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on
wheels.
8C. Many
engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.
9 Insurance
companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the insurance
will become 100 x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will
disappear.
10. Real estate
will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move
further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
11. Electric
cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all
new cars will run on electricity.
12. Electricity
will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an
exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning
impact.
13. Last year,
more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are
desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home
solar installations, but that simply cannot continue… technology will take care
of that strategy.
14. With cheap
electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only
needs 2 kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most
places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if
anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
15. Health: The
Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will
build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with
your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into
it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It
will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to
world class medical analysis, nearly for free.
16. 3D printing:
The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10
years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies
have already started 3D printing shoes.
17. Some spare
airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now
has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they
used to have in the past.
18. At the end
of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can
then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
19. In China,
they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027,
10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
20. Business
opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, first ask yourself:
"In the future, do I think we will have that?" And, if the answer is yes, how
can you make that happen sooner?
20A. If it
doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea designed for success in
the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
20B. Work:
70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new
jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a short
time.
21. Agriculture:
There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world
countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on
their fields.
22. Aeroponics
will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available
and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all
agricultural surfaces are used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space
anymore.
23. There are
several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It
contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein
source".
Maybe
a revisit to your investment portfolio is in order? How about that luxury car
purchase you were considering, what will it be worth after self driving is
ubiquitous? And that collector car, how much will it be worth when most people
no longer drive? May be time to reevaluate.
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